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Because “Predictioneer” Sounds Like “Privateer”
By bukkhead | February 5, 2010
This review appeared previously at Wiffli.com, and is being reproduced here because here is where I’m supposed to put reviews.
BOOK REVIEWS: ‘THE PREDICTIONEER’S GAME’
by Bruce Bueno de Mesquita
272 pages
Published by Random House, 2009.
‘PIRATE LATITUDES’
by Michael Crichton
320 pages
Published by Harper Collins, 2009.
Finished The Predictioneers Game by Bruce Bueno de Mesquita last week, and Pirate Latitudes by the late Michael Crichton this week, and started in on It’s Not News, It’s Fark by Drew Curtis last night. So I’m ahead of schedule. Ahead of what schedule, you say, having only read this article and no other on Wiffli, where we write when/if we want to about whatever we want, even if it bores the crap out of all two of our readers? My schedule to read one book per week all year long, that’s what. Week 5, here we go.
Lots of good books come to me via The Daily Show, which is where I had heard of The Predictioneer’s Game. And never you mind that Bruce Bueno de Mesquita has one of the coolest names in the universe. As he explained in his interview with John Stewart on September 28th, 2009 (which date I give you so you can go through your DSwJS archives and watch it again) the outcomes of major points conflict can be predicted by evaluating who has influence in the conflict and the amount of interest they have in a particular resolution. Basically, a number is assigned to each player for what they want, how much they want it, and how much influence they have in achieving it, then a computer crunches the figures and a prediction is made.
On the one hand, bleak. We’re just a bunch of numbers. On the other hand, elegant, but because as BBdM points out, knowing how influence and interest predicts an outcome allows one to influence that outcome by changing some of the other factors. Peace in the Middle East? That’s easy—have Israel and Palestine swap tax revenues on tourism. Sounds good to me. The dude’s been 90% accurate or better for over a decade.
He even makes a prediction about global warming—don’t sweat it. Yeah, it’s there, and yeah, we oughta do something about it, but as temperatures rise, hot winds are going to make solar energy and windmills and wave-ebergy that much more profitable to produce and use, and voila, we’ll be green by 2050 or so.
Speaking of winds (SEGUE OF THE YEAR!) Michael Crichton’s first post-mortem publication, Pirate Latitudes, was a fun little read. Privateer (i.e. pirate) Charles Hunter goes after some Spanish gold, adventures ensue. That’s pretty much it. According to scuttlebutt (Wikipedia) MC wrote this in the 90s, maybe as a companion-piece to a video game that never got made. Spielberg’s going to film it.
As usual, Michael Crichton is Tom Clancy-lite, if you’re into technical details, although if you’re desperate to compare Crichton to Melville instead of Clancy, I’ll allow it. (Or maybe even Christopher Moore’s Fluke, which I have not read). Hacks, all of them, using the novel as an excuse to do research/gush about seamanship (Moore has admitted as much). Which is not a bad reason to read a book, all things considered. I think I’ll buy this one for my dad. He likes Tom Clancy, and boats.
Topics: Books |